THE US Government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might follow.
In its Desert Crossing games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs.
The documents came to light on Saturday through a Freedom of Information Act request by the George Washington University's National Security Archive, an independent research institute and library.
"The conventional wisdom is the US mistake in Iraq was not enough troops," said Thomas Blanton, the archive's director. "But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops."
About 144,000 US troops are now in Iraq, down from a peak of about 160,000 in January.
The war games looked at "worst case" and "most likely" scenarios after a war that removed Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what occurred after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
"A change in regimes does not guarantee stability," the 1999 seminar briefings said. "A number of factors including aggressive neighbours, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability."
The papers said the replacement regime could be problematic - especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out of step with regional governments.
"Iran's anti-Americanism could be inflamed by a US-led intervention in Iraq," the briefings read. "The influx of US and other western forces into Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as would the installation of a pro-western government in Baghdad."
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