A review of existing computer climate models suggests that global warming could transform the North Pole into an ice-free expanse of open ocean at the end of each summer by 2100, scientists are to report today.The researchers said that out of the 15 models they looked at, about half forecast that the sea-ice cover -- a continent-size expanse that shrinks and regrows with the seasons -- would seasonally vanish by the turn of the century.
"That may be conservative," said lead author Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo.
One model predicted the Arctic would be ice-free each September as early as 2040, according to the article in the journal Science. The remaining models showed the presence of some ice beyond 2100, although they agreed there would be significant ice loss if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at the current rate.
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