Although Clinton is ahead in this poll, Obama is viewed among Democrats — by 48 percent to 38 percent — as the candidate having a better chance of defeating Sen. John McCain, the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee.But the poll shows that Clinton and Obama would run equally close contests against the Arizona Republican. In a hypothetical matchup, Obama leads McCain by three points, 47-44 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Clinton, meanwhile, leads McCain by a similar margin, 47-45 percent.
“Statistically, there is no difference between how Obama runs against McCain or Clinton runs against McCain,” Hart says. “The difference is that Hillary … runs stronger with the Democratic base, and that Barack Obama reaches into a little bit broader group of voters,” such as independents.
Both matchups against McCain, however, are much closer than the poll’s generic ballot result, in which a Democrat beats a Republican 50-37 percent. This all suggests that, despite the advantages Democrats have going into the fall election, a presidential election against McCain would be an extremely competitive contest.
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