The independent National Bureau of Economic Research is the official arbiter of economic downturns. But it takes its timeEditor's note: This is the first in a series of stories that will look at how the economic downturn is affecting individuals throughout the country.
PALO ALTO, CALIF. Robert E. Hall doesn't make predictions, at least not about the state of the economy. Hall is the Stanford University economist who chairs the committee charged with identifying when recessions begin and end. Over lunch at a sunny café on the school's Mediterranean-style campus in Palo Alto, Calif., he explains it's much too early to determine whether the current slump merits the "R" word. "All the members of the committee agree we're far from a decision point," he says. Until much more evidence comes in, he prefers to call this an "experience."
It certainly is an experience for most Americans. Home prices tumble month after month. Food prices surge. Gas prices are approaching $4 a gallon. And the job market is getting rough. Given the evidence they see with their own eyes, most Americans believe the downturn is plenty clear. A recent survey by CNN (TWX) and polling firm Opinion Research found that 4 in 5 people think the economy is already in recession.
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