Pundits are eager to provide their predictions for the new year. Here's something a little different'Tis the season to prognosticate. It seems just about every reporter with a computer has rushed to provide his vision of the future with a laundry list of assorted projections for 2008. Rupert will buy this, so-and-so will get bounced from a top job, or that technology will be the hottest thing since the invention of the curling iron. So, I'm gonna go in a slightly different direction for no reason other than, well, this is my column. And I can.
For those who aren't already punch-drunk with prediction lists, here's a list of the Top 10 Things That Won't Happen in 2008:
1. The writers won't win the current strike. Considering that I'm a writer, I'd really love to see the guys with the ideas get their due, not to mention a hefty stake in the new media riches (are ya listening BusinessWeek editors?). But frankly, the Writers Guild of America has handled the current eight-week strike as poorly as one can imagine, especially by throwing in the red herring issue of demanding to represent reality-show writers not already under contract with them. This is a strike that legitimately should be about whether writers can get a chunk of residuals from the streaming of TV shows on the Net and other kinds of digital distribution. But the studio owners have stockpiled movies that take them through 2009 and are already making noises that they'll save money by airing reruns on the tube, shifting shows from cable channels (that they already just happen to own), and likely ending expensive producer deals. The result? When the studios settle with the much less demanding directors' guild —maybe in the next month—the writers will get the crumbs: a small piece of the digital action.
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