During the 18 1/2 years Alan Greenspan was chairman of the Federal Reserve, he scrupulously avoided forecasting recessions. Now it seems he can't stop using the R-word, and that has created headaches for his successor, Ben Bernanke.Greenspan delivered a speech via satellite to an investor group in Hong Kong last week in which he said it was possible that the United States could be in a recession by the end of this year.
Those comments, coming from a man who gained near legendary status for his forecasting acumen as Fed chief, were blamed for contributing to a 416-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average on Feb. 27.
Greenspan then gave another speech, this time to investors in Tokyo, in which he sought to modify his earlier remarks by saying that "it is possible we could get a recession toward the end of this year, but I don't think it's probable."
He has also given a couple of media interviews since the market plunge, seeking to elaborate on his recession concerns, including one in which he put the risk of a downturn this year at "one-third."
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